Deductive vs inductive arguments
I was searching for material on media literacy and came across this very insightful definitions of deductive and inductive arguments:
Mastering the art of picking out premises and conclusions is the first step toward good analytical thinking, but we must also think about whether the premises really do support their conclusions. Making that sort of determination requires that we think a little bit about the different kinds of arguments. There are several ways of categorizing arguments, but for our purposes, we can distinguish all arguments into one of two types: deductive and inductive.
Deductive argument: an argument whose premises make its conclusion certain
Inductive argument: an argument whose premises make its conclusion likely
(Note: Some dictionaries – and even some older logic texts – define deductive arguments as arguments that reason from the general to the specific and inductive arguments as those that reason from the specific to the general. That particular usage of the terms is obsolete.)
The difference between deductive and inductive arguments is easiest to see by way of examples.
Smith owns only blue pants and brown pants. Smith is wearing a pair of his pants today. So Smith is wearing either blue or brown pants today.
This is an instance of a deductive argument. We can tell that the argument is deductive because the two premises (that is, the first two sentences) guarantee the truth of the conclusion. If the two premises really are true, then there is no possible way that the conclusion could be false. Here’s another example:
The soccer game is on either Thursday or Friday. I just found out that the game is not on Thursday, so the game must be on Friday.
Again, this is a deductive argument, for the truth of the premises guarantees the truth of the conclusion. Contrast those examples with this one:
January has always been cold here in Siberia. Today is January 14, so it is going to be another cold day in Siberia.
This argument is inductive. The premises makes the conclusion likely, but they do not guarantee that the conclusion is true. To put the point another way, it is possible that the premises of this argument could be true and the conclusion could still be false. One can, for example, imagine a freak warm day in Siberia on January 14. But one cannot imagine that Smith owns only brown pants and blue pants, that he is wearing his own pants and that his pants are not brown or blue. To make the conclusion about the color of Smith’s pants false, one has to make one of the premises false. But one can make the cold day in Siberia claim false while keeping the premises true. Here is one more:
The local branch of Wachovia Bank was robbed yesterday. Jenny needed money to pay off her gambling debts. She just bought a gun two days ago, and I saw her hanging around the local Wachovia Bank yesterday morning. Today the bookie’s goons stopped looking for Jenny. So Jenny robbed Wachovia Bank yesterday.
This is the sort of inductive argument that should be familiar to anyone who has ever watched an episode of “Law & Order.” Again, though, as anyone who has seen “Law & Order” can attest, these sorts of inductive arguments can be (and frequently are) wrong. Even if all the premises are true, it is still possible that the conclusion is false.
instructional design, reasoning Add tag Permalink | Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Web 3.0 - the video
Web 3.0 from Kate Ray on Vimeo.
interesting Add tag Permalink | Tuesday, May 11, 2010
The Productivity Myth
Nice piece by Tony Schwartz over at Harvard Business Review:
So here’s the paradox: Americans are working 10 percent fewer total hours than they did before the recession, due to layoffs and shortened workdays, but we’re producing nearly as many goods and services as we did back in the full employment days of 2007.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke called these gains in productivity “extraordinary” and unforeseen at a recent Senate hearing.
There’s a simple, visceral reason for the gains, Mr. Chairman, and it’s called fear.
productivity Add tag Permalink | Saturday, May 08, 2010
Things to do at the beginning of each project
Nice list by Leah Buley on things to do before starting a project.
It’s been said that the two hardest parts of a project are the beginning and the end. In the middle, it’s often perfectly clear what should have gone differently at the start. But when you’re kicking off a project, you’re often so preoccupied trying to establish cordial working relationships and understand the nature of the project that some of the trivial but essential details get neglected. That’s too bad, because it’s often the trivial essentials that build trust.
project management Add tag Permalink | Thursday, May 06, 2010
What makes a company creative - Ed Catmull
Add tag Permalink | Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Nature by numbers
interesting Add tag Permalink | Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Design Patterns: Faceted Navigation
Very nice article by on faceted navigation by Peter Morville and Jeffrey Callenderi. I really like the part where they differentiate faceted browse from parametric search.
“On the other hand, the distinction between faceted navigation and parametric search is relevant. In parametric search applications, users specify their search parameters up front using a variety of controls such as checkboxes, pull-downs, and sliders to construct what effectively is an advanced Boolean query. Unfortunately, it’s hard for users to set several parameters at once, especially since many combinations will produce zero results.”
information architecture, taxonomy, search Add tag Permalink | Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Classification schemes (and when to use them)
Donna Spencer on the different ways to classify information (alpha, location, task, etc.). A nice pick up from Wurman’s 5 hatracks article.
“When you do information architecture work you’ll realize that most sets of content can be organized in more than one way. One of the challenges for an IA project is figuring out what way works best for your audience, your content and your project’s goals. In this article I’ll talk about a few different classification schemes you can use to organize your content, and offer tips on when and how to use each.”
information architecture Add tag Permalink | Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Dan Mayer shows ho to teach math
Great piece on teaching math that is fun and memorable by Dan Mayer. His blog has more.
school, education Add tag Permalink | Thursday, April 22, 2010
Twitter becomes a real collection
A while ago I wrote an article on Designing Collections for the Web. In this article I stated that Twitter was a collection and there are 4 objectives of a collection:
- To help users easily contribute to a collection (contributing objective)
- To help users find an item in a collection (identifying objective)
- To help users easily co-locate similar items (co-locating objective)
- To surface relevant and interesting items (relevancy objective)
In the Chirp Developer Conference, Twitter finally added the two objectives that were missing: surfacing relevant and interesting stuff (promoted tweets, although marketing influenced) and co-locate similar items (Twitter annotations).
I am really interested how the Annotations feature will take off. It could really extend the service beyond what we know of it now.
Add tag Permalink | Saturday, April 17, 2010
Use Microblogging to Increase Productivity
From Jeanne C Meister and Karie Willyerd, guest blogging at HBR.
“Ubiquity First, Revenue Later. Build an audience first and then uncover how it can lead to increased employee productivity or faster time to competence. Since microblogging is a modest expense, (often as low as $1.00 per user per month) there need not be elaborate ROl studies prior to piloting the service. However, you do need to identify key business goals you want to measure as microblogging rolls out across the company, such as increased brainstorming or greater ease in seeking feedback from employees. Then follow the impact on revenue.”
productivity, micro-blogging Add tag Permalink | Saturday, April 17, 2010
Starhub’s genres, classification problems, and an idea!
My new post over at PebbleRoad is around the new categorisation of TV channels proposed by local cable TV provider Starhub. My peeve is that the new categorisation is designed to serve internal needs and not the needs of the viewers. We’re required to just memorise the new numbers even though the assignment is ambiguous and confusing. To complete the article, however, I’ve also proposed a faceted classification of the channels and even given a mock of an iphone like interface to replace the last-century-looking remote. Enjoy!
taxonomy Add tag Permalink | Monday, April 12, 2010
IDSA design research
The design research section of the IDSA now has a website. Also, the current issue of IDSA’s publication Innovation is jam packed with design research related articles. Cool!
innovation, research Add tag Permalink | Sunday, April 04, 2010
Wondeful story on the Greenpeace Nestle PR war
interesting Add tag Permalink | Friday, April 02, 2010
How Conceptual Metaphors are Stunting Web Innovation
Wonderful article by Venkatesh Rao, a researcher in the Xerox Innovation Group. He says that outdated conceptual metaphors such as ‘document’ is slowing down our thinking about new innovations such as the live web. New conceptual metaphors are needed such as ‘stream’ and ‘trails’.
innovation Add tag Permalink | Friday, April 02, 2010
Maya Design explains Information Architecture
A good article with two really good videos explaining information architecture.
“Although it’s tempting to skip ahead to the look and feel of a design, the importance of first defining an Information Architecture (IA) can’t be overstated. Often we find that an existing system has been built as a monolithic solution that jumbles the raw plumbing of the system with the business process and the user interface. Unfortunately this leads to a brittle solution that can’t evolve with new user interfaces, new underlying systems, or new business realities. In fact we often hear the words “Information Architecture” naively applied to only one aspect of an experience (like “Information Architecture for the Web”) and then disregarded or ignored when an experience bridges interfaces (like when a user has to interact with a mobile application that integrates with related information in physical places).”
information architecture Add tag Permalink | Friday, March 26, 2010
Scrolling and attention
Big finding from Jakob Nielsen. Now clueless managers are going to sing this mantra and demand that everything be above the fold.
“Web users spend 80% of their time looking at information above the page fold. Although users do scroll, they allocate only 20% of their attention below the fold. “
usability Add tag Permalink | Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Africa’s Gift to Silicon Valley: How to Track a Crisis
A nice story from the NY times on a Kenyan product called Ushahidi. This is an informant mapping tool and works like this: anybody on the ground can call a cell number and and point out a location, it could be of a rape or a terrorist hideout, and all of this information is aggregated and represented on a map. If there are many pointers to a particular location, troops can be called in to look. Brilliant stuff.
“When the Haitian earthquake struck, Ushahidi went again into action. An emergency texting number was advertised via radio. Ushahidi received thousands of messages reporting trapped victims. They were translated by a diffuse army of Haitian-Americans in the United States and plotted on a ‘crisis map.’ From a situation room at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Medford, outside Boston, Ushahidi volunteers instant-messaged with the United States Coast Guard in Haiti, telling them where to search. When the Chilean earthquake struck, Ushahidi deployed again.”
interesting Add tag Permalink | Monday, March 15, 2010
Personal pronouns: It’s okay to own your web copy
Wonderful post from Brain Traffic on using personal pronouns in your web copy. I do agree, at times, it can be difficult to sell this in some organisations, but I also agree, it may be just a matter of adopting or getting comfortable with a style.
Using personal pronouns may sound like a simple, common-sense web writing best practice. Speaking directly to users with the word “you” is something most companies get on board with easily enough. But those same clients often ask us to avoid self-referential pronouns like “we,” “our,” and “us” in their web copy.
web content Add tag Permalink | Friday, March 12, 2010
15 Desktop & Online Wireframing tools
“Like most things today, the world of interaction design moves quickly. Although a pen and notebook may suffice when it comes to simply jotting down ideas, planning a series of website screens can sometimes demand additional precision and cohesion. This is where today’s wireframing tools come in.”
prototyping Add tag Permalink | Friday, March 12, 2010
Filenaming Conventions and Knowledge Sharing
Patrick has posted an article on file naming conventions. Good. Now I don’t have to hunt for them every time!
knowledge management, intranets Add tag Permalink | Wednesday, March 10, 2010
The Ethnography of Design: A Series
New series on Ethnography by Catapult Design:
This post is the first in a weekly series called “The Ethnography of Design” about the relationship between anthropology and design and how the ethnographer’s toolkit can be applied to build more effective world-changing, problem-solving products and systems. Each post in the series will be paired with – and will explore – a video or article that highlights an innovative design solution or product that has taken into account (successfully or unsuccessfully – and why) ethnographic research methods and human-centered design thinking frameworks.
research, ethnography Add tag Permalink | Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Making teaching stick
After reading Switch (highly recommended) by Dan and Chip Heath I headed to their website to get more resources. I was pleasantly surprised by the range of resources they have there. From a short summary of the book to how-to guides on using the principles in different settings. The one that caught my eye was Teaching that Sticks, a resource from their previous book, Made to Stick. It is a wonderful article-length read that gives a handful of strategies that you can try immediately, such as using the unexpected to create focus and interest.
instructional design, school Add tag Permalink | Monday, March 08, 2010
2010 Intranet Innovation Awards are open for entries
The 2010 Intranet Innovation Awards are open for entries. Entries close on Friday 23.
I like this award. It highlights how teams are thinking of making their intranets useful and productive. It starts a discussion on ideas and themes. I met some of the winners at the KM World conference in San Jose last November and I could clearly see their enthusiasm and determination in making their intranets work. I walked away with more than a few ideas to try out.
intranets Add tag Permalink | Monday, March 08, 2010
Designing collections for the web
Designing collections for the web - my new article over at PebbleRoad. The idea of the article came up when the team was discussing how best to leverage and surface homogeneous information. We were doing a redesign of a hospital website and found out that patients wanted to be connected with getting care in many different ways - by clinic, by doctor, by diseases and conditions etc. This idea let us to investigate collections, first as used by libraries, and then modified and as used by social media. This article compiles our experimentation and learning on the subject.
“A collection is a list of homogeneous items. A collection on the web can be as simple as a blog (a list of posts) to as complex as a library collection (multiple lists of different library materials). Collections are an integral part of many websites, but not all collections are designed with ease-of-use and ease-of-retrieval in mind. In this article, I’ll cover some theory and give practical advice on designing online collections for the websites and intranets.”
information architecture, intranets, interface, social media Add tag Permalink | Monday, March 01, 2010